Economic analysis & Research
Estimating the Global Costs of Violence
Developed the first comprehensive estimates for the global costs of violence containment across 152 countries and 13 dimensions.
Key achievements and results
- Created reproducible methodology for quantifying violence costs across 13 different types of violence in 152 countries.
- Established new academic standard in peace economics, with methodology enhanced by Stanford and Oxford researchers.
- Published findings in Journal of Business, Peace and Sustainable Development, demonstrating academic rigor and policy relevance.
Problem
International organizations, governments and researchers lacked a standardized methodology for gauging the global economic costs of violence. Without a framework to assess the return on investment for peace initiatives, stakeholders struggled to justify and target resources effectively across different types of violence and development contexts. This gap also limited the ability of policymakers to judge the benefits of economic and social policies designed to drive economic and social stability.
Approach
I led development of an innovative ‘unit costing’ methodology that systematically linked sources of violence with their associated costs. The approach created a standardized measurement framework that linked the volume of activities linked with violence, and the absence of peace, with their associated cost. A combination of statistical tests were used to benchmark the validity of the estimates and the methodology underwent peer review by sector experts. To ensure the methodology could be scrutinized and built upon by global researchers the final paper provided a detailed outline of the approach, data sources and reasoning behind any assumptions made.
Validating global estimates of the economic costs of violence
Source: Dickenson-Jones, G., Hyslop, D. and Vaira-Lucero, M., 2014. Estimating the global costs of violence. Business, Peace and Sustainable Development, 2014(2), pp.6-27.
Results
The work delivered the first comprehensive measurement of the global costs of violence containment for 152 countries across 13 dimensions. This enabled policymakers to quantify the economic benefits of peace improvements and provided a concrete framework for targeting development assistance. The methodology also provided a strong foundation for evidence-based policy decision making in the peace building community and has since been built upon by peace and conflict experts from leading institutions, including Stanford University, Oxford University and the London School of Economics.
Quantifying the global economic cost of violence and fear
Source: Dickenson-Jones, G., Hyslop, D. and Vaira-Lucero, M., 2014. Estimating the global costs of violence. Business, Peace and Sustainable Development, 2014(2), pp.6-27.
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